According to today’s analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the Republican tax bill currently being considered in the House does not fulfill Senate rules for avoiding a filibuster, meaning it will be subject to the regular 60-vote threshold.
Republicans had previously relied on employing budget reconciliation – which only requires a simple majority of 51 votes to pass legislation in the Senate – to pass the bill. But as it stands, the bill does not satisfy the Byrd rule, which stipulates that reconciliation legislation cannot add to the deficit. This legislation, however, adds nearly $155 billion to the deficit.
“We estimate the legislation would add about $155 billion to the deficit in 2028; the Byrd rule does not allow reconciliation legislation to add to the deficit at all beyond the budget window (which currently ends in 2027),” the CRFB wrote in an review of the Republican bill.
In order to satisfy the Byrd rule, Republicans may be forced to render temporary their corporate tax cuts, thereby undermining any economic growth Republicans promised with this legislation.
While the Senate is writing its own version of the legislation, the two chambers must have matching bills for the measure to ultimately come up for a vote. As it stands now, however, subject to a 60-vote threshold in the Senate, Democrats will easily be able to vote the measure down.
It seems that the so-called “deficit hawk” Republican efforts to deliver a tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires on the backs of middle class Americans just hit the ultimate impasse.